Looking at the monthly chart from a purely technical standpoint, Bitcoin is just now popping it’s head above the halfway mark of the 2022 bear market price swing, running into ‘premium’ territory.
If we look at the points of interest above this level we have a bearish order block with the midpoint at $44,360. We also have a fair value gap with the midpoint at $50,700.
This current rally Bitcoin has experienced seems to be solely based on the fact that a BTC ETF approval is on the horizon. If this rally continues or the ETF is approved, I believe we could see price run as high as the top of the fair value gap at $53,270. To add fuel to that fire is the 2024 Bitcoin Halving which is scheduled for April. This usually sets Bitcoin on a parabolic run.
I’m not yet convinced that price just skyrockets from here though. What I would expect to see is a run up into the bearish order block around the $44,000 mark and a much needed correction back down to around $25,000 where we have a lot of resting liquidity before we kick off the 2024 bull market. This to me makes the most sense.
If an ETF is approved soon we could see the fair value gap around $50,000 tested, much the same as we did at the end of 2022. If the ETF is declined, that could be the catalyst that sets off a correction back down to $25,000. The ETF news is what everyone seems to be holding their breath for.
Looking at the monthly chart from a purely technical standpoint, Bitcoin is just now popping it’s head above the halfway mark of the 2022 bear market price swing, running into ‘premium’ territory.
If we look at the points of interest above this level we have a bearish order block with the midpoint at $44,360. We also have a fair value gap with the midpoint at $50,700.
This current rally Bitcoin has experienced seems to be solely based on the fact that a BTC ETF approval is on the horizon. If this rally continues or the ETF is approved, I believe we could see price run as high as the top of the fair value gap at $53,270. To add fuel to that fire is the 2024 Bitcoin Halving which is scheduled for April. This usually sets Bitcoin on a parabolic run.
I’m not yet convinced that price just skyrockets from here though. What I would expect to see is a run up into the bearish order block around the $44,000 mark and a much needed correction back down to around $25,000 where we have a lot of resting liquidity before we kick off the 2024 bull market. This to me makes the most sense.
If an ETF is approved soon we could see the fair value gap around $50,000 tested, much the same as we did at the end of 2022. If the ETF is declined, that could be the catalyst that sets off a correction back down to $25,000. The ETF news is what everyone seems to be holding their breath for.