I’ve been chewing on this idea for a while now but have struggled to gather the necessary data to make my case. In an ideal world, I would be drawing on more in-depth Twitter statistics such as number of mentions, impressions and project PFPs being represented on the timeline. Unfortunately, I have yet to find a source for this kind of data. As such, I will have to make my case with qualitative examples rather than hard quantitative facts. I will also ask you to cast your mind back to what the timeline was like at each of the mentioned points in time. Perhaps you will remember the level of activity that I saw too.
The example tweets provided are not a knock or attack against any individual or entity, nor are they an attack on the projects themselves. They are merely an example of the type of content often seen in relation to the relevant projects.
In no way am I stating that posts of the nature described from these accounts are a sell signal. As always, my opinions are not financial advice and I encourage everybody to do their own research.
I anticipate that there will be those who say in rebuttal that there are many more factors that affect a project’s price action and that this is an oversimplification and they would be absolutely correct. That doesn’t change the fact that the frequency with which this phenomenon plays out is uncanny and is therefore worth considering.
The Social Media Top Signal
We often talk about the psychological element of investing/trading. I’m sure many of you have seen the often cited ‘Wall Street Cheat Sheet’ referencing the correlation between market psychology and the current point within a market cycle. One of the key takeaways from this chart is the correlation between market participants being in a state of europhia almost immediately before the cycle turns around and the market heads down (this could be short term or long term).
NFTs are no different and I’ve collated several examples where europhia, bragging (not in all cases) and lots of positive noise being made around a project preceded a local top.
DeGods
DeGods are without a doubt the most pertinent example at time of writing given the immense activity currently surrounding the project. In this case, I have identified two major patterns of behaviour. On both occasions, Frank noted the importance for members of the community not to get caught up in these behaviours.
Unfortunately for this example, the infrastructure available on Ethereum to live chart price action on NFTs is shockingly poor. As such, the charts provided were drawn from CoinGecko.
Image 1 – June 19th 2023
On this date, we saw DeGods floor price cleanly break the 10 ETH level for the first time. Peak euphoria ensued. I must admit that the data from CoinGecko throws me off as I do not recall the floor reaching as high as 13 ETH but nevertheless, the second example also serves to prove the point.
Image 2 – June 6th 2023
The ‘DeGods has flipped MAYC’ narrative truly took hold on this day. Funnily enough, this was a complete fallacy since MAYC’s supply and therefore market cap were still higher than DeGods but that’s besides the point.
Either way, the 10 ETH mark has more or less been considered the high point for the DeGods floor which coincided with an increase in flexing activity from members of the DeGods community.
SolCasino – Images 3 and 4
Another recent example where we saw significantly more mentions of SolCasino on the timeline in relation to both the value of the $SCS token rising and therefore staking returns, and the subsequent floor price pump that followed. The irony of ‘100 SOL floor price’ declarations is it leads many people to try and front run that level to take profits.
Oogy – Images 5 and 6
In their early days, Oogy were the talk of the town alongside MadLads with some outrageous sales occurring for highly sought after traits. Alas, their peak in popularity also coincided with local tops.
MadLads – Image 7
Remember when there was all that talk that a large number of Chinese investors were taking interest in MadLads? Remember when everyone was declaring that a 100 SOL minimum floor price was programmed?
Claynosaurz – Image 8
When I was first putting together the idea for this article, Claynosaurz was the first project to come to mind. Following their event in Los Angeles in March 2023, and leading up to their event at NFT NYC in April 2023, it was almost impossible to scroll the Twitter feed without seeing a Clayno PFP or a mention of Claynosaurz somewhere. It really felt like they were everywhere. Like clockwork, the milestone of breaking 100 SOL and all the celebrations that coincided signalled the top before the inevitable reset back to pre-hype run levels which I’ve alluded to in this previous article.
Conclusion
To reiterate, none of the above is a knock against any project or Twitter account. It’s merely an observation in how market participant psychology reflects the phases of market cycles. Will this theory always hold up? Of course not, there will always be exceptions but as an observer, I have to say it plays out on a very regular basis.
I must give credit to SolSniper for the level of data available on their platform. Trying to find a similar platform for data on Ethereum really made me appreciate the work SolSniper do.
Introduction and Disclaimer
I’ve been chewing on this idea for a while now but have struggled to gather the necessary data to make my case. In an ideal world, I would be drawing on more in-depth Twitter statistics such as number of mentions, impressions and project PFPs being represented on the timeline. Unfortunately, I have yet to find a source for this kind of data. As such, I will have to make my case with qualitative examples rather than hard quantitative facts. I will also ask you to cast your mind back to what the timeline was like at each of the mentioned points in time. Perhaps you will remember the level of activity that I saw too.
The example tweets provided are not a knock or attack against any individual or entity, nor are they an attack on the projects themselves. They are merely an example of the type of content often seen in relation to the relevant projects.
In no way am I stating that posts of the nature described from these accounts are a sell signal. As always, my opinions are not financial advice and I encourage everybody to do their own research.
I anticipate that there will be those who say in rebuttal that there are many more factors that affect a project’s price action and that this is an oversimplification and they would be absolutely correct. That doesn’t change the fact that the frequency with which this phenomenon plays out is uncanny and is therefore worth considering.
The Social Media Top Signal
We often talk about the psychological element of investing/trading. I’m sure many of you have seen the often cited ‘Wall Street Cheat Sheet’ referencing the correlation between market psychology and the current point within a market cycle. One of the key takeaways from this chart is the correlation between market participants being in a state of europhia almost immediately before the cycle turns around and the market heads down (this could be short term or long term).
NFTs are no different and I’ve collated several examples where europhia, bragging (not in all cases) and lots of positive noise being made around a project preceded a local top.
DeGods
DeGods are without a doubt the most pertinent example at time of writing given the immense activity currently surrounding the project. In this case, I have identified two major patterns of behaviour. On both occasions, Frank noted the importance for members of the community not to get caught up in these behaviours.
Unfortunately for this example, the infrastructure available on Ethereum to live chart price action on NFTs is shockingly poor. As such, the charts provided were drawn from CoinGecko.
Image 1 – June 19th 2023
On this date, we saw DeGods floor price cleanly break the 10 ETH level for the first time. Peak euphoria ensued. I must admit that the data from CoinGecko throws me off as I do not recall the floor reaching as high as 13 ETH but nevertheless, the second example also serves to prove the point.
Image 2 – June 6th 2023
The ‘DeGods has flipped MAYC’ narrative truly took hold on this day. Funnily enough, this was a complete fallacy since MAYC’s supply and therefore market cap were still higher than DeGods but that’s besides the point.
Either way, the 10 ETH mark has more or less been considered the high point for the DeGods floor which coincided with an increase in flexing activity from members of the DeGods community.
SolCasino – Images 3 and 4
Another recent example where we saw significantly more mentions of SolCasino on the timeline in relation to both the value of the $SCS token rising and therefore staking returns, and the subsequent floor price pump that followed. The irony of ‘100 SOL floor price’ declarations is it leads many people to try and front run that level to take profits.
Oogy – Images 5 and 6
In their early days, Oogy were the talk of the town alongside MadLads with some outrageous sales occurring for highly sought after traits. Alas, their peak in popularity also coincided with local tops.
MadLads – Image 7
Remember when there was all that talk that a large number of Chinese investors were taking interest in MadLads? Remember when everyone was declaring that a 100 SOL minimum floor price was programmed?
Claynosaurz – Image 8
When I was first putting together the idea for this article, Claynosaurz was the first project to come to mind. Following their event in Los Angeles in March 2023, and leading up to their event at NFT NYC in April 2023, it was almost impossible to scroll the Twitter feed without seeing a Clayno PFP or a mention of Claynosaurz somewhere. It really felt like they were everywhere. Like clockwork, the milestone of breaking 100 SOL and all the celebrations that coincided signalled the top before the inevitable reset back to pre-hype run levels which I’ve alluded to in this previous article.
Conclusion
To reiterate, none of the above is a knock against any project or Twitter account. It’s merely an observation in how market participant psychology reflects the phases of market cycles. Will this theory always hold up? Of course not, there will always be exceptions but as an observer, I have to say it plays out on a very regular basis.
I must give credit to SolSniper for the level of data available on their platform. Trying to find a similar platform for data on Ethereum really made me appreciate the work SolSniper do.